hello at the rose about institute and founding editor of the new deal two point zero blog that is going to do it for now for more on the stories we covered before our next show you can go to r.t. dot com slash usa and follow me on twitter at lauren lyster and i'll see you right back here for more news. here is that so much there's a huge decision. in the markets is the arab spring vs the street the arab middle east where does this leave you with a new engine exploded the sheaves in the region just the sums. the say.

the milk. lynn issued free. education free. for charge free from a commission free risk free. priests. mold free broadcast live video for your media project a free media party dot com. live live live. live can. listen to. the live.

below and welcome to crossfire gang peter lavelle as the arab spring continues to sweep the arab middle east where does this leave iran with a new and democratic regimes in the region now deceased themselves from washington and how is the arab spring changing the islamic republic live can. still live. crossed out the fate of iran in the storm of the arab revolutions i'm joined by mohammad marandi in toronto he's a professor at the university of tehran in london we go to jonathan paris he is a security specialist and senior fellow with the atlantic council and author of the recent report prospects for iran and in irvine we crossed the serai soap or ehrlich she's an independent research writer and political commentator all right cross talk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want but first let's look at iran and its neighborhood. where.

the west. democratic tsunami you're in the see very intense diplomatic predicament the revolutions in egypt and tunisia where highly praised public were also welcomed revolt in jordan and libya. will be isolated iran may actually find new partners and build alliances to run has already turned in your place in his dealings with egypt a thorn in their relations was highlighted and went to worship sailed through the suez canal for the first time it warns there's the shit uprising and crane also works to iran's advantage to run speaks out and support of protesters who struggle against this so no ruling class. claim and washington's behavior was strongly condemned by this. why should a monarch family. the people each not really should cast their vote at the ballot

box and anyone who is elected. will be the leader over there and this sense of justice is not applies to see which continues to suppress dissent and learn its cluing that's consistent in losing one of his allies in the region it has been reported that iran has provided the syrian authorities with probability price in dealing with quite scared dissent all the while washington is watching we are watching very closely what iran is doing in the region. we hear praising the uprisings in the middle east and north africa. except it doesn't praise what happens inside iran and it doesn't praise what is happening in syria it is a further example of the hypocrisy of the iranian regime both concerts a visit using the other of their crissy there are fears that the sunni and fear

divide will intensify even further and cloned. did much of the revolutionary. yes. political sense of course. there are critics and arab spring. steps however the story of the recent protests. as to what. crosstalk are. all right so i always go to the person that gets up earliest for the program that's you in california so i'll go to you first here how is the standing of the united states in the region now envious of the iran because for the last thirty years the united states's just been at odds with the islamic republic almost to the point of fanaticism and we see these these revolutions are revolts being played out in north africa and other parts of the region which you know we don't

know if they're going to be anti-american but it's clearly they're not going to be as pro-american as the dictators that have fallen is that to iran's advantage or is it really and one secular question. good morning thanks for having me on your show and to be frank with you i am not certain that i would call them revolutionaries in the region and i am very apprehensive of the term the arab spring because that was first applied to the two thousand and five comments made by various reporters thinking that after the illegal invasion of iraq the democracy or progress toward democracy would follow and it's now being applied to the uprisings in various countries in the region and had his uprisings been totally independent of outsiders. i would say that they would and being the making the countries more sovereign and rhythm of their various dictators but they're not

independent they've been they're actually taters this are taking advantage of people's decided faction and we know for a fact it's everywhere and many experts believe that national environment for democracy and freedom house has been training the people to be arson on the streets and revolt against her various regimes and it was it's actually interesting that the revolutions or others they're knob become too known they're exactly harm not serve but the this started in tunisia and egypt the two countries were the puppet dictators friends of the united states had terminal illnesses and i think that perhaps it was to america's advantage to control its democracy program by initially getting rid of these two dictators and replacing them controlled chaos and then their on. going to the other countries while boosting its own image in the in the

area in the region where you know it was one interpretation was going on because jonathan how do you figure ran plays and all this is this a net gain or a net loss for them. it's hard to say right now if you if you're keeping score in a kind of conventional like power point of view military power and alliances you would have to say iran is doing well because they haven't yet lost an ally and they have their enemies have lost a few or actually so why as a interesting point maybe america hasn't lost egypt or tunisia but it's certainly not the same kind of kneejerk support that you could count on from mubarak and ben ali you have now you have a much more chaotic situation for america so i would say right now iran is winning however a big question mark is syria although i have something contrarian to say i hope

people will jump in which is that in syria in a way saudi arabia iran and the united states. and even israel here kind of see eye to eye in trying to keep it going i mean nobody's really pulled the plug on assad least of all the united states ok mohamed i'm going to you in toronto i mean united states israel and saudi arabia working together or do how do you how do you see that in regard to syria and iran and iran go ahead you know. well i i think that with regards to syria. the turks are also concerned because they are they have the form of islam that dominates in turkey is is not the islam and it's much more mild and there is a large population and minority population in turkey as well as well as as well as a kurdish population so turkey too does not have an interest in syria falling

if syria falls i think as your previous pointed out correctly. no one will really win even i think perhaps even the saudis would be the biggest lou. because if the salahi's in syria are much more hardcore then. than in egypt and if if syria follows then jordan will i think definitely i think fall and saudi arabia will be more surrounded than before because right now the saudis have very poor relations with iraq with iran with baron obviously. in yemen things are very unstable there is a weak central government the north of yemen the who have very poor relations with the saudis because of the bombing of their villages by the saudi regime last year and in the south there and their salahi's which are hostile towards the saudis despite the fact that the saudi ruling family aside i think itself so i think that if jordan falls the saudis will be in in

a lot of trouble especially with the situation in egypt they're not very friendly with the soviets now either so serious that you're very busy. go ahead jonathan jump in jonathan go ahead i didn't i think that's a big leap to say that because this term that my ronnie and friend used as they call the opposition in syria solid fist that's a pretty binary look i mean syria has a lot of people opposed to assad right now there are variances druze in the south there are there are we vello if you're very sunni. in the villages in bani who are being massacred there the city people can cool in homes i mean to say that. the oh is all of this and i don't mean to say that. but i mean is that i mean there is a gentlemen gentlemen let's go there let's. go ahead. thank you when

will the two speakers leave that to the interests of both america saudi iran israel and what have you to in a way back syria i tend to disagree because then i would have to ask why is it that the united states is funding the opposition and funding a satellite television in london where are the television to broadcast anti regime propaganda into syria and agitate the people against the regime so it's very hard for me to believe that. i mean. let's go back to let's go back to go ahead before we go to the break i think to be honest i think the americans and the israelis are are somewhat confused in their position because as you could guess in the united states pointed out the americans are playing a role here and so are american allies in lebanon on how easy. it is funding

groups within syria and the saudis are deeply involved in all of this but as i pointed out earlier i wasn't saying that the opposition to the syrian government is just sanity but what i'm saying is that the concern in turkey is. the overthrow of the government would have very negative consequences for them that is how they apparently feel about it but i don't think that the americans are i think pointed out the americans their allies they've had a role in the unrest in syria and i'm not saying that the syrian government is is that you know ordinary people who are killed that's a good thing but there are soldiers who are also being killed so that it's not simply a revolution or an uprising in the sense and i think again you're guessing i mean the. job you're going to a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on the ground state with r.t. . and you.

seem. to to want. a cluster mission. and inside the container you have a small bomb and you can have anywhere from dozens up to hundreds of there's a huge market right now for cattle area clearance it was there are a lot of countries in the world that are contaminated by unexploded ordnance. once you've got these companies and n.g.o.s that have basically shrunk that have an expert change to get rid of these weapons what they did was they go to these places they will hire local train the locals how to do the clearance will let the locals basically take ownership because you know they have a vested interest in clearing their homes and they're putting themselves at risk

every single day when they go out there to clear areas of. the mission three going to take three or four charges three arrangement three. three. three. old three blow just loading video for your media projects and free media john darche dot com. a charming here broadcasting live from washington d.c. coming up today on the big picture.

welcome back across town a futile about to remind you we're discussing what's next for iran in light of the arab awakening. ok jonathan i'd like to go back to you in london we were talking about the nature of the syrian regime and opposition and who benefits when things go wrong there go ahead jonathan well i think it's important to note that what's happening in syria

in the villages and cities of syria is not something that the americans are still higher areas or cooking up or even the saudis it is really an indigenous revolt against what i call mafia rule of about twenty five persons just about twenty five persons no more that have run that run this country like it's their own a.t.m. machine that's the real fundamental problem i agree that the americans and the israelis have been very slow and uncertain to support the opposition i think the saudis likewise but clearly the fall of saddam would hurt iran and therefore iran has every interest in portraying this is more of an evenhanded battle between tanks on the one hand and are unarmed civilians on the other it's simply not even and so i don't think that's trying it out ok i just would just be a briefly i just want to say that the that's not how iran is putting it iran is calling on the syrian government to move forward with reforms but at the same time

there is absolutely no doubt that the saudis are deeply involved in that doesn't mean that since then ball there is no legitimate grievances in syria but you have to keep in mind that unlike mubarak. sad president assad has been able to bring huge crowds into damascus and other major cities so he is not without his supporters his foreign policy has been popular among his own people and. seller segments of his own people at least so it's not as if it's a one sided game he is popular and he has many enemies but i think i'm no expert on syria so i have to wait and see what happens so i i'd like to ask you a question it's interesting i like a point you brought up earlier in the program about intentions in. making syria unstable for a possible regime change is there just maybe the united states and its allies are just looking for it playing out a number of different options simultaneously and seeing which one is most

attractive when they get to a point where they find it is attractive it's not contradictory to have different different approaches. that's very true i mean it would not be very wise to have just one plan there was have a plan b. and c. but they are united states clearly failed when he was when he invaded countries and made it bankrupt now is funded much cheaper way of undermining the regimes that are not friendly towards it and in fact. in two thousand and ten had if israeli security interests the kind asked and said that syria is the biggest threat to israel and if they continue on the path they're continuing they would. send israel back to snipe to sixty seven borders and so syria is a huge concern if israel's for one thing they want the golan heights back and israel will not negotiate on that and i think any analysts would agree that the

united states foreign policy is there to cater to the israel is a national interest and there's a also obviously the very country i disagree for some reason jonathan i thought you would go right ahead but i think that's ludicrous that's absolutely nonsense israel has enjoyed thirty two years of peace with syria on the golan heights they're absolutely delighted with the stability they have with syria and that's precisely the reason why they're not pushing to have thrown under the truck the way obama threw mubarak under the truck there are different situation each country is different but it's already got you it was my in syria you know it's the sort order . it point well i think the israelis definitely do not like the syrian president hamas this time it's. all supported and backed by

syria and syria is the only neighbor of israel besides lebanon which is a very different case altogether. there that hasn't signed the border agreement with with israelis they are in the sea effectively in a state of war and the situation changes in egypt and of course it's complicated who knows what's going to happen in egypt but i think that whether the americans like it or not there are forces at play in egypt will that will cause more pressure on the government to to support the people in gaza and i think that in general when you have a situation with the like with syria which is supporting these groups and then you have a new situation in gaza israelis will definitely be feeling more and more uncomfortable to say the least so aren't go ahead is really going on with the way ahead mind boggling. it's mind boggling that jonathan should say they've lived in peace for thirty two years the syrian israelis and syrians were sent out

a couple of years ago they bombed illegally the syrian nuclear program and again as professor marandi in tehran said they've never of never being there have never had a good relationship with syria and what bothers israel more than anything in fact is the fact the syria has always been remade in our life iran and iran for israel is and that iranians for their own creates an. israel wouldn't be getting the aid from the united states it wouldn't be acting the way it does without anybody stopping their illegal activities and their murders and their. encroaching on palestinian lands ok jonathan i want to change gears here i just you know i know you see another paper that you wrote your recent paper on iran it's not about how if we call it a revolution a revolt or a weakening or spring or whatever it we want to a collectively call it what's happening in north africa and how is it going to

affect iran. on the ground on the ground well that's a that's a kiss that's a difficult one to say i think iran have found a formula for crushing the opposition in two thousand and nine after the flawed you little elections allegedly fraudulent elections where ahmadinejad's allegedly won sixty five percent of the vote and then you had an amass outpouring of people in the cities of tehran but ultimately through a combination of group force. and in any event what happened in north to in north africa is is really quite different they may have learned some twitter techniques from the iranian revolution but what happened in iraq what happened in tunisia and egypt were fundamentally john i found this so he said ok i don't like trace back to israel has suddenly well i thought it was i hear sort of i was there he was not the iranian. look look i could make

a point either although your memory does not say why i try then i read where i didn't finish my point and i didn't finish my point i mean here you're so obsessed with america and with israel i'm trying to say that what the arab spring is a crowd it's about the lack of governance is about the lack of personal freedom it's about a lot of things that the tunisian and the egyptian people felt so i wouldn't say that it was impacted by iran however i would say that the problems that the people of tunisia and egypt are suffering from are not different from the problems that people iranians are in iran are suffering from a professional right now what do you mean completely i jump in go well first of all very quickly in iran i didn't vote for mr ahmadinejad i'm not a fan of mr ahmadinejad but he won the elections legitimately there was absolutely no fraud the polls carried out by american showed at the polls carried out by iranians showed it and even mousavi is representative in the ministry of interior

who had forty thousand volunteers said specifically five days after the election that there was no fraud but regardless of iran what is hard with north africa the issue of good governance is very important i agree with you completely on that and the issue of corruption and dignity but also i think what is very important regardless of who is managing these revolutions and with direction it is taking the people of the region are very angry towards their leaders for blindly supporting the united states and aiding. the united states in its support for apartheid policies in palestine the people of the region dislike israel immensely and not because they are jewish but because there is a zionist ideology that dominates the land and the people of palestine are treated as third they are not treated as human beings and that is very central to how people in this region feel so ryan we want to chime in on that. i do agree with

professor marandi one hundred percent i also want to point out that yes iran does deal with protests but also understand that the support for the regime in iran comes from the people i like but unlike the scenario it's an easy one of us the united states and israel the support of this countries so if if even if there is an uprising in iran the majority of the people do support the regime and the president and it's just self numbers ok jonathan if i know thank you and one of course at the center of american foreign go go right ahead dr struck right a bit malices but i don't know where to begin i think it's utter nonsense order nonsense the iranian people do not support the iranian people do not support iraq would be in a job that's art or nonsense and human rights violations of my leisure. and right away excuse me sir i am speaking now you listen yes araya human rights

violations compare compare tanks in syria shooting on armed civilians compare with the buses you did to poor neda in tehran compare that to whatever you think israelis are doing i know ok well does that mean is it legal for your. property this is the care and property rights are you under for john i put off your friend yeah. if you carry martial they sure martial when osama bin laden there was a caption last week on sky news or some of bin ladin says there were not be peace in palestine until the rights of palestinians there interrupted care marshall who was watching the massacre in homs of syrian supported by iran by the way of syrian tanks and to martial such come off it everybody i talked to from benghazi. to to

cairo to to to tunisia and now here and holmes says we reject the big lie the big lie that says it's israel's for many many. more than just their march or explained this is pretty high but here is are you going to. fall prey to that's what i'm sorry we've run out of time so some time we're just running out of time thank you for this very spirited debate many thanks to my guests today and london and in irvine and thanks to our viewers for watching us here darkie see you next time remember cross-talk rolls.